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Value & Time: EUR/USD – Too Many Questions And Now not Sufficient Solutions…But 

EURUSD_Upside_retest_PT_aug_31_body_Picture_1

Speaking Factors

  • EUR/USD turns at Fibonacci day rely
  • Is 2011 value motion the roadmap?

Unfamiliar with Gann & Sq. Root Relationships? Study extra about them HERE.

EUR/USD: Upside re-check looming or main downtrend reasserting itself?

Price & Time: EUR/USD - Too Many Questions And Not Enough Answers...Yet

I regularly have a good suggestion (or as a minimum assume I do) of the close to-time period/intermediate cyclical framework in EUR/USD. The ten-giant determine plus roundtrip in spot over the past week and 1/2 has no doubt sophisticated the image a little. The idealized stage for me to look the broader downtrend in EUR/USD begin to check out to reassert itself after the smash of 1.1465 was once round 1.1800 as this marks the 38% retracement of closing 12 months’s excessive and the March low in addition to the measured transfer of the March – May just enhance. The euro fell slightly shy of those idealized ranges closing week because the alternate fee reversed sharply from simply above the 12th sq. root relationship of the 1.0458 March low.

On the other hand, there used to be some fascinating timing early final week because the August 24th spike excessive within the trade fee got here 161 calendar days from the March low, 89 calendar days from the Could low, 35 (at some point off 34) calendar days from the July low and thirteen calendar days from the this month’s low. So far as Fibonacci day counts go that’s beautiful compelling stuff. In relation to EUR/USD, I’ve at all times been extra occupied with buying and selling day counts, however ultimate week’s motion tells me I undoubtedly wish to begin paying extra consideration to calendar days as smartly.

Underneath standard situations, I might be lovely sure that each one this marks a broader resumption of the main downtrend and all issues thought to be there’s a excellent likelihood that it does. My downside right here is the euro’s contemporary correlation with equities. Numerous my work in different gadgets suggests there will have to be as a minimum a draw back re-take a look at of some type in equities and it’s laborious seeing EUR no longer rally if that occurs. Possibly it results in a decrease excessive in EUR/USD, most likely it sees 1.1800 visited, most likely it doesn’t even leap? Too many inquiries to have any actual readability.

The following few days will have to begin to weed out probably the most prospects as any potential (I’m anticipating a jump) prior Thursday (particularly above 1.1400) would strengthen the case for a re-take a look at. A failure to jump or tepid rally that results in a handy guide a rough smash below 1.one thousand would warn that the broader downtrend is certainly re-declaring itself.

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Written by way of Kristian Kerr, Senior Forex Strategist for DailyFX.com

To contact Kristian, email kkerr@fxcm.com. Observe me on Twitter @KKerrFX

DailyFX offers foreign exchange information and technical diagnosis on the tendencies that affect the worldwide forex markets.
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