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Value & Time: EUR/USD – Too Many Questions And No longer Sufficient Solutions…But 

EURUSD_Upside_retest_PT_aug_31_body_Picture_1

Speaking Factors

  • EUR/USD turns at Fibonacci day depend
  • Is 2011 worth motion the roadmap?

Unfamiliar with Gann & Sq. Root Relationships? Examine extra about them HERE.

EUR/USD: Upside re-check looming or major downtrend reasserting itself?

Price & Time: EUR/USD - Too Many Questions And Not Enough Answers...Yet

I regularly have a good suggestion (or as a minimum assume I do) of the close to-time period/intermediate cyclical framework in EUR/USD. The ten-giant determine plus roundtrip in spot over the past week and 1/2 has no doubt sophisticated the image a little bit. The idealized stage for me to look the broader downtrend in EUR/USD begin to take a look at to reassert itself after the spoil of 1.1465 was once round 1.1800 as this marks the 38% retracement of remaining yr’s excessive and the March low in addition to the measured transfer of the March – May just boost. The euro fell just a little shy of those idealized ranges final week because the change fee reversed sharply from simply above the 12th sq. root relationship of the 1.0458 March low.

Then again, there was once some attention-grabbing timing early closing week because the August 24th spike excessive within the trade price got here 161 calendar days from the March low, 89 calendar days from the May just low, 35 (someday off 34) calendar days from the July low and thirteen calendar days from the this month’s low. So far as Fibonacci day counts go that’s beautiful compelling stuff. In relation to EUR/USD, I’ve all the time been extra fascinated with buying and selling day counts, however final week’s motion tells me I indisputably wish to begin paying extra consideration to calendar days as smartly.

Underneath commonplace cases, I might be beautiful sure that each one this marks a broader resumption of the main downtrend and all issues regarded as there’s a superb probability that it does. My downside right here is the euro’s up to date correlation with equities. Numerous my work in different devices suggests there must be as a minimum a draw back re-take a look at of some type in equities and it’s onerous seeing EUR now not rally if that occurs. Most likely it results in a decrease excessive in EUR/USD, in all probability it sees 1.1800 visited, in all probability it doesn’t even soar? Too many inquiries to have any actual readability.

The following couple of days will have to begin to weed out one of the potentialities as any potential (I’m anticipating a soar) prior Thursday (particularly above 1.1400) would enhance the case for a re-check. A failure to soar or tepid rally that results in a handy guide a rough smash beneath 1.one thousand would warn that the broader downtrend is certainly re-declaring itself.

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Written by using Kristian Kerr, Senior Forex Strategist for DailyFX.com

To contact Kristian, email kkerr@fxcm.com. Practice me on Twitter @KKerrFX

DailyFX gives foreign exchange information and technical diagnosis on the tendencies that affect the worldwide forex markets.
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